A Common Misconception

When we think about the end of a war, the first instinct is optimism."The war is over, so the stock market will rise!" But is that really how markets behave?
Not always.
History suggests that post-war periods are far more complex. Some assets soar, others crash. And while peace brings hope, it can also bring volatility.

Let’s break it down with facts and charts.
 

Breaking News: Trump & Putin Ceasefire Talks in Alaska-Aug 15th 2025

In a surprise development, Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet former U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska to discuss a Ukraine ceasefire proposal—marking the first visit by a Russian leader to U.S. soil since 2015. With no Ukrainian representation at the table, this bold geopolitical move may shift power dynamics significantly.
Traders should proceed with caution—as this meeting could become the catalyst for either market optimism or geopolitical uncertainty. Watch oil, gold, and equity markets closely in the days ahead.

Oil Prices May Spike After War Ends

One of the most direct effects of war is on oil markets.During conflicts, especially involving oil-producing nations like Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Canada, oil supply chains get disrupted. However, the U.S. often steps in to stabilize prices, ensuring oil doesn’t surge too high—especially during wartime—to prevent opponents from profiting.But once the war ends?That control eases. Oil-producing nations regain pricing power. And that’s when we historically see oil prices shoot up.Example: Compare prices during 2011–2014 vs. 2020–2024 Between 2011 and 2014, oil traded above $100 per barrel—well after the 2008 crisis and in relatively stable times.
Today’s oil prices are far lower—but the end of war could reverse that trend.

What about Gold?

Gold is often seen as a "safe haven"—which means it typically rises during uncertain times like wars and economic crashes. But during post-war recovery, gold doesn’t always shine.
Let’s look at history.

2008 Financial Crisis:
Gold rose from $687 to $1,925 (nearly 2.8x increase in 4 years).

Russia–Ukraine War (2022–2024):
Gold climbed from $1,621 to around $3,500 (a 2.2x increase)
 

But what happened after the crisis was over?

From 2011 to 2015, as global economies recovered, gold prices crashed by 45%, dropping to $1,038.
This pattern may repeat.If the war ends and global growth resumes, gold could see a steep decline in the coming years.

COVID, War & the Unnatural Market Rally

Another interesting comparison: COVID-19 and its aftermath. During COVID, the entire world shut down. Factories were silent. Consumption dropped.Yet… the stock market soared.

Why?

Because millions sought secondary income sources, entering the stock market. Even with low economic output, investment demand kept prices high. Then came the Russia–Ukraine war on February 24, 2022—and the market never truly corrected since. Now, as the war nears an end, many experts fear this could be a tipping point Highlight how stock prices rose while real growth lagged

What Will Happen After This War Ends? There are two likely scenarios:

Scenario 1: Global Recovery Begins

1. Oil prices will likely rise sharply

2. Gold prices may drop

3. The stock market may see correction before finding stability

Scenario 2: A New Crisis Emerges

1. Both gold and oil could surge

2. Stock markets may panic temporarily

3. Safe havens regain importance

Final Thoughts: History Leaves Clues

Peace is always a welcome event. But when it comes to the markets—peace doesn’t always mean profits. If history is any guide: Oil thrives after war Gold weakens during global recovery Markets often correct before they grow So before jumping into trades on optimism, take a moment to study the past. It might just help you profit from the future.